Why do forecasters are so inaccurate with weather prediction?
so much scary talks about Earl (it did hit hard some areas)-we (NY) were spared-I knew it 24 hrs prior to (my broken leg never lies about upcoming rain, wind or drastic weather changes. I felt nothing. So why can't that be more accurate. It irritates me like hell considering long weekend plans.
First off, the hurricane track for Earl was EXACTLY on track. Earl did EXACTLY what we forecasted it to do, and this was 5 days ago.
It is not our fault that the stupid news media, in order to get more viewership and more money, chooses to dramatize every little thing out there.
Many people choose to believe hyperbole. I saw questions on here like "When will Earl hit Miami" or "Should I be scared in Los Angeles because of Earl".
People who are not in the weather field generally believe things they should not. Many people thought that Hurricane Earl was headed straight for New York City as a cat 5 hurricane with 200 m.p.h. winds. We, as weather forecasters KNEW 5 days ago that Earl would NOT hit the East Coast, and only areas RIGHT on the coast would feel its effects.
I do not know where you got your information, but EVERY model we put out stated that only the extreme eastern areas of Long Island would get any effects from Earl, since we knew it would be 100 miles out to sea. I am not angry hon, but please do not blame the forecasters for what the News Media does. They are nothing but hyperbole.
I really recommend the following article:
On average if 33% of weather predictions are accurate, the predictors are happy. Because weather is predicted by looking at patterns and is work of probability. That is weather prediction is a chance game.
The atmosphere is a complex system there is more to a forecast then just looking at a couple maps then coming up with a forecast. There are at least a dozen to about 2 dozen different computer models that meteorologists have to look at as well as what the the upper levels of the atmosphere are doing to come up with the forecast and out of those couple dozen models they have to figure out which model is more accurate. Then the next day they come in that model that they were going by might end up being totally off and they have to then basically have to start over and figure out again which model is more accurate. At anytime the atmosphere can change as well which will then throw off their forecast. Right now forecasts are about 70-80% correct which is a lot better then it was 20 years ago. Since the atmosphere is part of nature there is no way to be 100% accurate because we can't control the weather we can only take an educated best guess from what the computer models are saying as to what the forecast will be. I mean can you imagine having to look at a couple dozen different computer models and each one of them are saying something different and then trying to figure out which one is the more accurate one? It is amazing that they are able to make a forecast that is around 80% accurate.